Modelling of the supplementary measures for the stabilization of oil market price dynamics

Abstract

Purpose: the author considers a stabilization problem of the oil market price. Oil producing and refining companies, as well as consumers of petroleum products, are interested in stable dynamics of oil prices. Therefore, there is a need to prevent unpredictable chaotic price spikes in the oil market. Anti-crisis measures are needed to suppress chaotic fluctuations in oil prices. The author demonstrates that the use of mathematical methods in the modern chaos control theory can be effectively utilized to fulfill this purpose. Discussion: the author suggested the nonlinear discrete system that can be used to simulate processes observed in the oil market in this paper. Also the author developed an economic-mathematical model with the use of modern chaos control theory methods. This model is capable of both neutralizing the chaotic price movement and transforming price dynamics into a stable periodic mode. Results: the author offered to use the obtained model as a supplementary tool during development and implementation of the measures for oil market price stabilization. The practical application of the constructed model is demonstrated with an example of statistical data for the average monthly price of Brent crude oil. The methods developed in this paper are convenient from a practical point of view and can be easily adapted to the real market dynamics.