The feasibility of using linear cellular automation to forecast on the basis of small samples

Abstract

Purpose: the author proposes the mathematical methods use of nonlinear dynamics in the development and adaptation of mathematical methods and predictive models for the analysis of winter wheat yields time series. Discussion: the author chose a linear cellular apparatus as a main tool in order to demonstrate and predict the behavior of the observed system. Also the author studies indicators values of winter wheat yield in the regions of southern Russia. The choice of data series was made due to the following fact – each contains a different number of statistics, and some of the studied series represent a small sample. It is shown that the preparation of a sufficiently accurate forecast is possible on the basis of a small data amount. Results: this article reveals the applicability of using a linear cellular automaton for nonlinear dynamic systems’ forecasting, which solves the problem of so-called «small samples».