The concept of agrifood markets development simulation model

Abstract

Purpose: the article deals with the issues of using system-dynamic tools for simulation modeling of agricultural raw materials and food markets. Discussion: the approach proposed in the study is based on continuous-deterministic modeling of production processes, distribution and consumption, prices, supply and demand. The author presents the following model hypotheses: 1) partial market equilibrium resulting from the mutual influence of prices, supply and demand; 2) dynamic consumers and manufacturers preferences (including non-price ones); 3) the specific supply pattern due to the agricultural features; 4) the possibility of intervention by government regulators. In accordance with these hypotheses, the key model mechanisms have been developed: the partial market equilibrium mechanism based on the modified Evans model, the import and export mechanisms based on the Armington model, the delayed supply response mechanism, the price shock mechanism, etc. Results: the article contains the description, visualization of the proposed model in accordance with the system dynamics ideology. The author outlines the main directions of proposed model approbation and simulation experimentation.