Construction of models for forecasting the investment attractiveness of organizations and industries in a non-stationary socio-economic environment

Abstract

Purpose: the aim of the study is to form an approach to the quantitative assessment of the dynamics of the development of organizations and industries to assess their investment attractiveness in the conditions of instability and risk of the socio-economic environment on the basis of multidimensional stochastic cointegral analysis. Discussion: in the modern economic system, one of the areas for assessing the degree of development or degradation of enterprises, as well as individual industries, in order to assess investment feasibility is the methodology for tracking and predicting structural changes in the dynamics of financial and economic indicators related, in addition to performance, to general trends in scientific and technological progress and value creation factors, cyclical economic processes, globalization, political risks, uncontrolled impacts, such as the occurrence of pandemics, etc. However, a review of modern scientific specialized literature has shown that, despite the relevance of the issue, there are not so many examples of solving the problem in quantitative form, especially taking into account the non-stationary nature of the studied processes. Results: we propose a universal empirical approach to assessing and predicting the dynamics of the development of enterprises and individual sectors of the economy in order to assess investment risk on the basis of modern multidimensional stochastic cointegral analysis.