Approaches of development and scope of application methods of complex forecasting of the sugar industry AIC

Abstract

Purpose: the most dynamically developing production structures, where integrated forecasting is actively used, are the integrated segments of the sugar subcomplex. At the moment, Russia has formed a state system of technological forecasting, which creates a new format for the development of future research and interaction of the country's key industries in the form of a single well-established complex. The article deals with the study of the possibilities of complex forecasting of performance indicators of integrated production systems of the sugar subcomplex. The subject of the study is the prospects of application and potential economic benefits from the use of the integrated forecasting methodology. Discussion: specific requirements and trends that will have a significant impact on integrated forecasting in the near future are formulated. The article analyzes the features of long-term forecasting of economic development, determines the methods that are acceptable for use in the process of long-term forecasting. The author proposes a number of research projects, such as: development of methods for statistics of objects of non-numerical nature; improvement of existing and development of new research «platforms» for synergetic forecasting based on heuristic methods; development of models and methods for the formation of investment strategies of systems with a complex hierarchical structure in a crisis (on the example of the sugar market). Results: the article describes the prospects and ways of further development of integrated forecasting not only for the sugar industry, but also for other sectors of the national economy of Russia. As a result of the research, the article presents the ways of developing the methodology of complex forecasting under different adaptive control modes, as well as the possible limitations for this type of forecasting, also indicates the measures to prevent the impact of crisis factors in the integrated forecasting of the results of the sugar industry enterprises.