SCENARIO PLANNING OF THE ENTERPRISE’S PRODUCTION PROGRAM ON THE BASIS OF MODELING COGNITIVE RISKS

Abstract

Discusses the original technique for determination of cognitive risk to the formation of the production program, which consists in using a scenario approach in prediction of the group characteristics of the decision makers in the process of data processing, different from the existing account for the influence of localized irrational opinions that help to improve the prediction accuracy. The technique adapted for the solution of tasks of formation of the enterprises production program and use in the project offices of cluster associations. The study was performed by a grant of Russian Science Foundation (project No. 16-18-10149).