MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES MARKET

Abstract

Purpose: Article is devoted to modeling the long-term relationship between the volume of the information and communication technologies (ICT) market in the Russian Federation and the major macroeconomic indicators that affect its dynamics of development. Discussion: The author proposes to explore the volume of the domestic ICT market through a set of econometric models developed by him with the involvement of cointegration analysis apparatus. These models allow inferring the presence of stationary linear combinations between the time series and quantifying the degree of influence of explanatory variables on the endogenous variable. Results: The author suggests a complex of econometric models describing the volume of communication services provided in Russia. The application of these models is specified. The model that includes the largest number of factors is investigated thoroughly. It is shown that the most effective tools to stimulate growth in the volume of communication services provided in the country are the raising the level of communication workers wages and the increasing the number of employees in the industry.