Pre-forecast time series analysis with identification of trend-seasonal components by chetverikov method using ms excel means

Abstract

Purpose: the Article is devoted to identifying trend-seasonal components using iterative methods for filtering the time series of sales of drinking mineral water in the Krasnodar territory. Calculations and drawing of graphs are performed in MS Excel. Discussion: аccording to the described research goals and the results of the analysis of the time series characteristics, the authors step-by-step present the implementation of the Chetverikov method as a data filtering method. When using this method, the series is subjected to iterative filtering three times (iterative calculations of the seasonal wave are performed and the obtained indicators are subtracted from the original series). In this way, the time series is pre-forecasted for further forecasting, and the degree of influence of the seasonal component on the series is reduced. Results: the result of the study is a step-by-step filtration of the trend-seasonal time series of sales volumes of bottled drinking water and calculated characteristics: estimates of the trend, deviations, and wave strength coefficient. The obtained indicators are actually pre-forecast, and their further use will allow you to choose effective forecasting methods and models.