Evaluation of the productivity of grain production in the South of Russia by methods of nonlinear dynamics

Abstract

Purpose: this article presents an assessment of the consistency of forecasts of meteorological factors with forecasts of grain production productivity indicators based on the calculated Kendall’s concordance coefficient, which allows systematically taking into account all the variety of influencing meteorological factors using mutually complementary methods and approaches to forecasting grain production productivity. Discussion: the methods of nonlinear dynamics proposed and tested by the authors are presented in the form of a synergetic approach that takes into account the cyclical nature and the current volatility of natural processes and phenomena affecting the economic performance of grain production in the regions of Russia. Results: the proposed approach aggregates calculations of forecast models of meteorological factors using cluster analysis, determines the degree of their consistency with forecasts of grain production productivity indicators.