Import substitution in food industry under conditions of obligations to the World Trade Organization and aggravation of the international situation

Abstract

Purpose: the paper examines the availability of food through domestic production and intensification of import substitution in the food industry. Subject: we presented the situation and dynamics of volume and structure of food import. The paper analyses the possibilities of import substitution in food industry under conditions of obligations to the World Trade Organization and aggravation of the international situation in case of the Federal subjects of the Ural Federal district. Method: We simulated the development of food industry over the time series, taking into account dynamics of functioning of industries in the district. The prediction is made on the basis of the modernized method of Hirst. The application of this model system allows to construct a time series at certain intervals, taking into account the time of the reliable forecast. Results: The paper considers the positive and negative aspects in import substitution in food industry.