Модель адвективных изменений влажности воздуха со стохастическими параметрами

Владимир Григорьевич Задорожний; Михаил Евгеньевич Семенов; Игорь Иванович Ульшин; Владимир Сергеевич Ножкин

doi:10.17308/sait.2019.2/1288

Authors

Владимир Григорьевич Задорожний Voronezh State University
Михаил Евгеньевич Семенов Voronezh State University
Игорь Иванович Ульшин Air Force Academy named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Yu. A. Gagarin
Владимир Сергеевич Ножкин Air Force Academy named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Yu. A. Gagarin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17308/sait.2019.2/1288

Keywords:

moisture transfer, random processes, stochastic model, Vaga – Ising distribution, mathematical expectation, second moment function, influence of random factors

Abstract

The paper presents a solution to the underlying moisture transfer model of a differential equation whose coefficients are random processes. The distribution of the projection of the instantaneous velocity vector is approximated by the Vaga-Ising law, the parameters of which are identified on the basis of a bionic model of adaptive search behavior. Explicit formulas for the mathematical expectation and the second moment function of the solution of the corresponding moisture transfer equation are proposed. The estimation of the degree of influence of random factors on the system, in the case of replacing the random coefficient of the equation by its mathematical expectation, is determined. An example is given in the case of the Gaussian distribution of the horizontal component of the wind speed, which makes it possible to determine the expectation and the second moment function within the framework of model representations.

Author Biographies

Владимир Григорьевич Задорожний, Voronezh State University

professor, head of department of nonlinear oscillations, Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russia
Михаил Евгеньевич Семенов, Voronezh State University

rofessor, professor, professor of digital technology, Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russia
Игорь Иванович Ульшин, Air Force Academy named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Yu. A. Gagarin

assistant professor, head of the department of theoretical hydrometeorology, MESC AF «N.E. Zhukovsky and Y.A. Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh), Voronezh, Russia
Владимир Сергеевич Ножкин, Air Force Academy named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Yu. A. Gagarin

ostgraduate officer of theoretical hydrometeorology, MESC AF «N.E. Zhukovsky and Y.A. Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh), Voronezh, Russia