Оценка уязвимости лесного хозяйства лесостепной и степной зон Европейской части России к наиболее вероятным изменениям климата
Ключевые слова:
климатические изменения, управляемые леса, уязвимость, факторы уязвимости, адаптация, адаптационный потенциал
Аннотация
Цель – выявить основные текущие и наиболее вероятные тренды климатических изменений в лесостепной и степной зонах Европейской части России. В статье освещаются риски лесного сектора, связанные с изменениями климата и ключевые факторы уязвимости управляемых лесов. Материалы и методы. Исследование проводилось на территории 11 субъектов РФ. Вычислялась относительная площадь гибели насаждений по основным факторам, негативно влияющим на леса, рассчитывался нормированный показатель и делался вывод об уязвимости системы. Результаты и обсуждение. Выявлено 4 ключевых фактора уязвимости лесов региона: лесные пожары, энтомовредители, болезни леса и неблагоприятные погодные условия. Рассчитаны уязвимость и адаптационный потенциал каждого субъекта изучаемого региона РФ. Выводы. В статье перечислены наиболее и наименее уязвимые области по каждому фактору. Дана комплексная оценка потенциально возможных изменений лесного хозяйства региона, в связи с возрастающей вероятностью данных рисков и связанной с ними угрозы смены породного состава. Исследование может быть использовано для разработки лесохозяйственного комплекса адаптационных мероприятий для смягчения негативных последствий изменения климата, связанных с ними материальных потерь и адаптацию лесного комплекса к меняющимся условиям окружающей среды.
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Литература
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15. Lloyd A. H., Bunn A. G. Responses of the circumpolar boreal forest to 20th century climate variability. Environmental research letters, 2007, vol. 2, pр. 13.
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2. Budyko M. I. Klimat v proshlom i budushhem [Climate in the past and in the future]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1980. 352 p. (In Russ.)
3. Vil'fand R. M., Strashnaja A. I., Bereza O. V. O dinamike agroklimaticheskih pokazatelej uslovij seva, zimovki i formirovanija urozhaja osnovnyh zernovyh kul'tur [On the dynamics of agro-climatic indicators of sowing, wintering and harvest formation conditions of the main grain crops]. Trudy Gidrometcentra Rossii, 2016, vol. 360, pр. 45-78. (In Russ.)
4. Gal'cov A. P., Chaplygina A. S. Vtoroe soveshhanie po probleme preobrazovanija klimata [The second meeting on the problem of climate transformation]. Izvestija AN SSSR. Serija geograficheskaja, 1962, no. 5, pp. 184-186. (In Russ.)
5. Gruza G. V. Ran'kova Je. Ja, Platova T. V. Ocenka sezonnyh osobennostej regional'nyh projavlenij izmenenija global'nogo klimata [Assessment of seasonal characteristics of regional manifestations of global climate change]. Problemy ekologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovanija ekosistem, 2010, no. 23, pp. 11-22. (In Russ.)
6. Doklad ob osobennostjah klimata na territorii Rossijskoj Federacii za 2016 god [Report on the climate characteristics in Russia for 2016]. Moscow: Rosgidromet, 2017. 70 p. (In Russ.)
7. Matveev S. M. Dendroindikacija dinamiki sostojanija sosnovyh nasazhdenij Central'noj lesostepi [Dendroindication of the dynamics of the state of pine plantations in the Central forest-steppe]. Voronezh: Izdatel'stvo VGU, 2003. 269 p. (In Russ.)
8. Razrabotka scenariev adaptacii sistemy vedenija lesnogo hozjajstva v upravljaemyh lesah Severo-Zapada Evropejskoj chasti Rossii v svjazi s ozhidaemymi izmenenijami klimata. Ocenka naibolee verojatnyh izmenenij v lesnom pokrove, trebujushhih primenenija adaptacionnyh mer raznoj stepeni zablagovremennosti: Zakljuchitelynyj otchet o NIR [Development of the forest management system adaptation scenarios in the managed forests of the North-West of the European part of Russia in connection with expected climate changes. Assessment of the most likely changes in the forest cover that require the early adaptation measures: The final research report]. Sankt-Peterburg: SPbNIILH, 2016. 116 р. (In Russ.)
9. Razrabotka scenariev adaptacii sistemy vedenija lesnogo hozjajstva v upravljaemyh lesah lesostepnogo rajona i rajona stepej Evropejskoj chasti RF v svjazi s ozhidaemymi izmenenijami klimata: Zakljuchitel'nyj otchet o NIR [Development of the forest management system adaptation scenarios in the managed forests of the forest-steppe region and the steppe region of the European part of Russia in connection with expected climate changes: The final research report]. Voronezh: VNIILGISbioteh, 2018. 90 p. (In Russ.)
10. Razrabotka scenariev adaptacii sistemy vedenija lesnogo hozjajstva v upravljaemyh lesah lesostepnogo rajona i rajona stepej Evropejskoj chasti RF v svjazi s ozhidaemymi izmenenijami klimata: Promezhutochnyj otchet o NIR [Development of the forest management system adaptation scenarios in the managed forests of the forest-steppe region and the steppe region of the European part of Russia in connection with expected climate changes: The interim research report]. Voronezh: VNIILGISbioteh, 2017. 169 p. (In Russ.)
11. Harchenko N. A., Aref'ev Ju. F., Martoveckij O. V. Lesozashhitnyj aspekt formirovanija kul'tur sosny v juzhnoj lesostepi Central'nogo Chernozem'ja [Forest protection aspect of the formation of pine plantations in the southern forest-steppe of the Central Chernozem region]. Tezisy dokladov nauchnoj konferencii, 2000, рp. 30-31. (In Russ.)
12. Brooks N., W. N. Adger, and P. M. Kelly. The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 2005, pр.151–163.
13. Chamberlin T. C. Climate Change and Cosmogony. Studies in the History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31B, 3 (2000), pр. 293-308.
14. Füssel H. Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 2007, pр.155–167.
15. Lloyd A. H., Bunn A. G. Responses of the circumpolar boreal forest to 20th century climate variability. Environmental research letters, 2007, vol. 2, pр. 13.
16. Manabe S., Wetherald R. T. Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. J. Atm. Sci, 1967, vol. 24, no. 3, pр. 241-259.
17. Möller F. On the influence of changes in the CO2 concentration in air on the radiation balance at the Earth's surface and on climate. J. Geophys. Res, 1963, vol. 68, no. 13, pp. 3877-3896.
Опубликован
2022-10-20
Как цитировать
Семёнов, М. А., & Комарова, О. В. (2022). Оценка уязвимости лесного хозяйства лесостепной и степной зон Европейской части России к наиболее вероятным изменениям климата. Вестник ВГУ. Серия: География. Геоэкология, (3), 76-85. https://doi.org/10.17308/geo/1609-0683/2022/3/76-85
Выпуск
Раздел
География
