Thermal Regime in the Voronezh Region in a Changing Climate
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to investigate modern trends in the surface atmosphere and quantitative changes in the mean annual air temperature for 1951-2020 according to observations at weather stations in the Voronezh region. Materials and methods. Calculation of characteristics and analysis of long-term dynamics were carried out using mathematical-statistical, geographical interpolation, comparative analysis, graphical, trend methods. Results and discussion. In the long-term dynamics of mean annual air temperature, a turning point year (1987) with the lowest mean annual temperature for the region has been established, from which a steady increase in temperature follows. The long-term changes have a discontinuous character with a steady increase in the annual average temperature. The warmest decade was 2001-2010, when the average temperature for the region increased by 0,8- 1,0°C. The highest average annual air temperature in the observation series was formed in 2020 and averaged 9.5°C for the region, which is 3.1°C higher than the norm for 1961-1990. Conclusion. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of the mean annual air temperature showed that there was a steady increase in the indicator for the period 1951-2020. Temperature increase varied by decades, with more intense increase in the northwestern, northern and north-eastern parts of the region in the current century than in the rest of the territory. The annual increase in 2001-2010 was on average 0.09°C/year for the region. For successful and stable development of the region it is necessary to take into account the current and projected changes in the thermal regime by developing and adopting adaptive measures and directions that reduce the economic risks of nature management.
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