Dynamics of the Ratio of the Size of Urban Settlements in the Tyumen Region in 1989-2021

Abstract

The purpose is to assess the dynamics of the ratio of the size of urban settlements in the Tyumen Oblast over the historical time period 1989-2021. Materials and Methods. Object of the study: the Tyumen Region is a complex constituent entity of the Russian Federation consisting of 3 full-fl edged regions - the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Yugra, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Tyumen Region (South). Zipf's rule was used to estimate the ratio of population dynamics. This time period includes 4 rounds of population censuses: the All-Union census in 1989 and 3 All-Russian censuses in 2002, 2010 and 2021, as well as the change of economic formation from planned-administrative to market. Results and discussion. It has been established that by the end of the 1980s of the XX century in the Tyumen Region (with Autonomous Okrugs) a stable correlation between the cities in terms of population was formed (the Zipf's coeffi cient in 1989 amounted to -0.98668); this ratio was the closest to the ideal ratio (-1): in the South of the Tyumen Region = -1.77547, in Yugra = -1.03134, in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug = -0.81742; since 1989, all 3 centres of the Tyumen Region constituent entities have shown the maximum population growth among all cities; given the prevalence of resource extraction of exhaustible resources in the economy of the regions of the Tyumen Region, this situation leads to the aggravation of the Dutch disease due to the formation of a bloated bureaucratic apparatus; since 1989, the greatest transformations have occurred in the ratio of population in urban-type settlements, which were a consequence of the instability of monoprofi le industries over a signifi cant time interval. Conclusions. The measures for the regional management to organise a balanced development of the network of urban settlements in the regions of the Tyumen Region have been proposed.