Роль климатических факторов в распространении природно-очаговых клещевых инфекций в условиях изменения климата на северо-западе России
Ключевые слова:
природно-очаговые инфекции, последствия изменений климата, Северо-западный регион РФ, сопредельные страны Европы
Аннотация
Цель настоящей работы – изучение многолетней динамики заболеваемости населения клещевыми инфекциями на северо-западе РФ (на примере Калининградской области и сопредельных регионов) с акцентированием роли современных климатических изменений. Материалы и методы. Исследование базируется на данных мониторинга заболеваемости клещевыми инфекциями в отдельных регионах европейской части РФ. Проанализированы многолетние данные о среднегодовой численности, территориально-временном распространении иксодовых клещей, стандартизированных показателях заболеваемости клещевым энцефалитом (КЭ) и иксодовым клещевым боррелиозом (ИКБ). Проведена статистическая обработка временных рядов с выявлением трендов и аномалий, вызванных изменениями климата. Результаты и обсуждение. Последствия быстрой изменчивости климатических условий отражаются на ареалах существования и развития возбудителей природно-очаговых заболеваний, в том числе клещевых инфекций. Вспышки заболеваемости ИКБ в Калининградской области регистрировались в годы с экстремально высокой среднегодовой температурой воздуха. Вспышкам заболеваемости, по-видимому, способствовали климатически теплая осень и очень теплые зимы 2006-2007 годов и 2014-2015 годов с аномалиями температуры воздуха 4,8 °С и 5,1 °С, соответственно. Выводы. Ареалы и длительность сезона распространения клещей в будущем могут измениться, однако статистически значимая связь между увеличением заболеваемости клещевыми инфекциями, в частности, боррелиозом (ИКБ) и средней температурой воздуха не обнаружена.
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Литература
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2. Analiz riska zabolevaemosti kleshchevym virusnym encefalitom v rajonah s raznymi klimatogeograficheskimi usloviyami [Analysis of the risk of tick-borne viral encephalitis in areas with different climatogeographic conditions] / N. K. Tokarevich, A. A. Tronin, R. V. Buzinov i dr. Analiz riska zdorov'yu, 2020, no. 4, pp. 127-135. (In Russ.)
3. Barinova G. M., Kohanovskaya M. I. Izmenenie klimata i dinamika prirodnoochagovoj zabolevaemosti naseleniya Kaliningradskoj oblasti [Climate change and the dynamics of the natural focal morbidity of the population of the Kaliningrad region]. Vestnik Baltijskogo universiteta im. I. Kanta, 2011, No7, pp. 36-44. (In Russ.)
4. Iksodovye kleshchi Karelii: (Rasprostranenie, ekologiya, kleshchevye infekcii): uchebno-metodicheskoe posobie KarNTsRAN, institut biologii [Ixode mites of Karelia: (Distribution, ecology, tick-borne infections): educational and methodical manual of Karntsran, Institute of Biology] / L. A. Bespyatova, S. V. Bugmyrin. Petrozavodsk, 2012. 97 p. (In Russ.)
5. Isachenko G. A. Mnogoletnyaya dinamika landshaftov Severo-Zapadnogo Priladozh'ya po dannym stacionarnyh nablyudenij [Long-term dynamics of landscapes of the North-Western Ladoga region according to stationary observations]. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Nauki o Zemle, 2018, vol. 63, v. 1, pp. 3-21. (In Russ.)
6. Kaliningradskaya oblast'. Prirodnye usloviya i resursy: racional'noe ispol'zovanie i ohrana: monografiya [Kaliningrad region. Natural conditions and resources: rational use and protection: monograph] / G. M. Fedorov. Kaliningrad: Izdatel'stvo BFU im. I. Kanta, 2016. 224 p. (In Russ.)
7. Korenberg E. I. Ekologicheskie predposylki vozmozhnogo vliyaniya izmeneniya klimata na prirodnye ochagi i ih epidemicheskoe proyavlenie [Ecological prerequisites for the possible impact of climate change on natural foci and their epidemic manifestation]. Izmenenie klimata i zdorov'e Rossii v XXI v., 2004, pp. 54-66. (In Russ.)
8. Malhazova S. M., Mironova V. A. Problema novyh i vozvrashchayushchihsya infekcij: zadachi mediko-geograficheskogo izucheniya [The problem of new and returning infections: the tasks of medical and geographical study]. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seria: Geografia. Geoekologia, 2017, no. 1, pp. 21-31. (in Russ.)
9. Mamchic L. P., Bortnovskij V. N., Chajkovskaya M. A. Lajm-borrelioz: harakteristika epidemicheskoj situacii v respublike Belarus' [Lyme borreliosis: characteristics of the epidemic situation in the Republic of Belarus]. Vestnik obrazovaniya i razvitiya nauki Rossijskoj akademii estestvennyh nauk, 2017, no. 21 (3), pp. 94-100. (In Russ.)
10. Epidemicheskaya situaciya po kleshchevym nejroinfekciyam v respublike Belarus' v usloviyah global'nogo potepleniya klimata [Epidemic situation of tick-borne neuroinfections in the Republic of Belarus in the context of global climate warming] / N. P. Mishaeva, T. I. Samojlova, N. S. Vereshchako, S. O. Vel'gin. Nacional'nye prioritety Rossii, 2009, no. 2, pp. 52-53. (In Russ.)
11. O koncepcii nacional'nogo segmenta klimaticheskogo obsluzhivaniya v sektore «Zdravoohranenie» Rossijskoj Federacii [About the concept of the national segment of climate services in the Healthcare sector of the Russian Federation] / E. V. Igolkina, V. V. Yasyukevich, I. O. Popov, S. M. Semenov. Gidrometeorologicheskie issledovaniya i prognozy, vol. 3, no. 369, 2018, pp. 131-152. (In Russ.)
12. Prirodnye ochagi kleshchevogo encefalita na severo-zapadnoj periferii obitaniya taezhnogo kleshcha (IX-ODES PERSULCATUS SCHULZE, 1930) [Natural foci of tick-borne encephalitis on the northwestern periphery of the taiga tick habitat (IXODES PERSULCATUS SCHULZE, 1930)] / L. A. Bespyatova, S. V. Bugmyrin, Yu. S. Korotkov, E. P. Ieshko. Trudy Karel'skogo nauchnogo centra RAN, 2009, pp. 96-101. (In Russ.)
13. Revich B. A., Maleev V. V., Smirnova M. D. Izmenenie klimata i zdorov'e: ocenki, indikatory, prognozy [Climate change and health: assessments, indicators, forecasts]. Moscow: INP, 2019. 196 p. (In Russ.)
14. Rubcova I. Yu., Mal'kova I. L. Zabolevaemost' kleshchevym encefalitom i zakleshchevlennost' territorii Udmurtii kak rezul'tat vozdejstviya prirodnyh i antropogennyh faktorov [The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and the encrustation of the territory of Udmurtia as a result of the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors]. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seria: Geografia. Geoekologia, 2017, no. 1, pp. 46-54. (In Russ.)
15. Epidemiologicheskie aspekty bolezni Lajma v Pripyatskom Poles'e [Epidemiological aspects of Lyme disease in Pripyat Polesie] / L. S. Cvirko, N. P. Mishaeva, T. A. Sen'kovec, V. A. Devyatnikova. Vestnik Polesskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya prirodovedcheskih nauk, 2013, no. 1, pp. 54-59. (In Russ.)
16. Epidemiologicheskie osobennosti rasprostraneniya kleshchevogo virusnogo encefalita v Arhangel'skoj oblasti [Epidemiological features of the spread of tick-borne viral encephalitis in the Arkhangelsk region] / O. V. Sokolova, V. P. CHashchin, O. N. Popova i dr. Ekologiya cheloveka, 2017, no. 24 (4), pp. 12-19. (In Russ.)
17. Alkishe A. A., Peterson A. T., Samy A. M. Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus. PLoS ONE, 2017, 12(12).
18. Boeckmann M., Joyner T. A. Old health risks in new places? An ecological niche model for I. ricinus tick distribution in Europe under a changing climate. Health & Place, 2014, no. 30, pp. 70-77.
19. Changes in the geographical distribution and abundance of the tick Ixodes ricinus during the past 30 years in Sweden / Jaenson T. G. T., Jaenson D. G. E., Eisen L., Petersson E., Lingren E. Parasites & Vectors, 2012, no. 5 (1).
20. Changing Climatic Boundary Conditions for Ticks in Central Europe / Paeth H., Stender F., Aich V., Mächel H. Advanced science Letters, 2012, no. 5 (1), pp. 149-154.
21. Effects of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases in Europe / Gray J. S., Dautel H., Estrada-Peña A., Kahl O., Lindgren E. Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases, 2009.
22. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modeling / D. Porretta, V. Mastrantonio, S. Amendolia et al. Parasites & Vectors, 2013, 6 (1).
23. Gaeva D. V., Barinova G. M., & Krasnov E. V. Climate Change and Health. Good Health and Well-Being, 2020, рр. 78-91.
24. Gilbert L. Altitudinal patterns of tick and host abundance: a potential role for climate change in regulating tickborne diseases. Oecologia, 2010, no. 162 (1), рр. 217-25.
25. Habitat properties are key drivers of Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) prevalence in Ixodes ricinus populations of deciduous forest fragments / Ehrmann S., Ruyts S. C., Scherer-Lorenzen M. et al. Parasites & Vectors, 2018, no. 11 (1).
26. Multi-source analysis reveals latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in range of Ixodes ricinus at its northern distribution limit / S. Jore, H. Viljugrein, M. Hofshagen et al. Parasites & Vectors, 2011, no. 4 (1).
27. Randolph S. E. Evidence that climate change has caused ‘emergence’of tick-borne diseases in Europe? International Journal of Medical Microbiology Supplements, 2004, no. 293, рр. 5-15.
2. Analiz riska zabolevaemosti kleshchevym virusnym encefalitom v rajonah s raznymi klimatogeograficheskimi usloviyami [Analysis of the risk of tick-borne viral encephalitis in areas with different climatogeographic conditions] / N. K. Tokarevich, A. A. Tronin, R. V. Buzinov i dr. Analiz riska zdorov'yu, 2020, no. 4, pp. 127-135. (In Russ.)
3. Barinova G. M., Kohanovskaya M. I. Izmenenie klimata i dinamika prirodnoochagovoj zabolevaemosti naseleniya Kaliningradskoj oblasti [Climate change and the dynamics of the natural focal morbidity of the population of the Kaliningrad region]. Vestnik Baltijskogo universiteta im. I. Kanta, 2011, No7, pp. 36-44. (In Russ.)
4. Iksodovye kleshchi Karelii: (Rasprostranenie, ekologiya, kleshchevye infekcii): uchebno-metodicheskoe posobie KarNTsRAN, institut biologii [Ixode mites of Karelia: (Distribution, ecology, tick-borne infections): educational and methodical manual of Karntsran, Institute of Biology] / L. A. Bespyatova, S. V. Bugmyrin. Petrozavodsk, 2012. 97 p. (In Russ.)
5. Isachenko G. A. Mnogoletnyaya dinamika landshaftov Severo-Zapadnogo Priladozh'ya po dannym stacionarnyh nablyudenij [Long-term dynamics of landscapes of the North-Western Ladoga region according to stationary observations]. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Nauki o Zemle, 2018, vol. 63, v. 1, pp. 3-21. (In Russ.)
6. Kaliningradskaya oblast'. Prirodnye usloviya i resursy: racional'noe ispol'zovanie i ohrana: monografiya [Kaliningrad region. Natural conditions and resources: rational use and protection: monograph] / G. M. Fedorov. Kaliningrad: Izdatel'stvo BFU im. I. Kanta, 2016. 224 p. (In Russ.)
7. Korenberg E. I. Ekologicheskie predposylki vozmozhnogo vliyaniya izmeneniya klimata na prirodnye ochagi i ih epidemicheskoe proyavlenie [Ecological prerequisites for the possible impact of climate change on natural foci and their epidemic manifestation]. Izmenenie klimata i zdorov'e Rossii v XXI v., 2004, pp. 54-66. (In Russ.)
8. Malhazova S. M., Mironova V. A. Problema novyh i vozvrashchayushchihsya infekcij: zadachi mediko-geograficheskogo izucheniya [The problem of new and returning infections: the tasks of medical and geographical study]. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seria: Geografia. Geoekologia, 2017, no. 1, pp. 21-31. (in Russ.)
9. Mamchic L. P., Bortnovskij V. N., Chajkovskaya M. A. Lajm-borrelioz: harakteristika epidemicheskoj situacii v respublike Belarus' [Lyme borreliosis: characteristics of the epidemic situation in the Republic of Belarus]. Vestnik obrazovaniya i razvitiya nauki Rossijskoj akademii estestvennyh nauk, 2017, no. 21 (3), pp. 94-100. (In Russ.)
10. Epidemicheskaya situaciya po kleshchevym nejroinfekciyam v respublike Belarus' v usloviyah global'nogo potepleniya klimata [Epidemic situation of tick-borne neuroinfections in the Republic of Belarus in the context of global climate warming] / N. P. Mishaeva, T. I. Samojlova, N. S. Vereshchako, S. O. Vel'gin. Nacional'nye prioritety Rossii, 2009, no. 2, pp. 52-53. (In Russ.)
11. O koncepcii nacional'nogo segmenta klimaticheskogo obsluzhivaniya v sektore «Zdravoohranenie» Rossijskoj Federacii [About the concept of the national segment of climate services in the Healthcare sector of the Russian Federation] / E. V. Igolkina, V. V. Yasyukevich, I. O. Popov, S. M. Semenov. Gidrometeorologicheskie issledovaniya i prognozy, vol. 3, no. 369, 2018, pp. 131-152. (In Russ.)
12. Prirodnye ochagi kleshchevogo encefalita na severo-zapadnoj periferii obitaniya taezhnogo kleshcha (IX-ODES PERSULCATUS SCHULZE, 1930) [Natural foci of tick-borne encephalitis on the northwestern periphery of the taiga tick habitat (IXODES PERSULCATUS SCHULZE, 1930)] / L. A. Bespyatova, S. V. Bugmyrin, Yu. S. Korotkov, E. P. Ieshko. Trudy Karel'skogo nauchnogo centra RAN, 2009, pp. 96-101. (In Russ.)
13. Revich B. A., Maleev V. V., Smirnova M. D. Izmenenie klimata i zdorov'e: ocenki, indikatory, prognozy [Climate change and health: assessments, indicators, forecasts]. Moscow: INP, 2019. 196 p. (In Russ.)
14. Rubcova I. Yu., Mal'kova I. L. Zabolevaemost' kleshchevym encefalitom i zakleshchevlennost' territorii Udmurtii kak rezul'tat vozdejstviya prirodnyh i antropogennyh faktorov [The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and the encrustation of the territory of Udmurtia as a result of the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors]. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seria: Geografia. Geoekologia, 2017, no. 1, pp. 46-54. (In Russ.)
15. Epidemiologicheskie aspekty bolezni Lajma v Pripyatskom Poles'e [Epidemiological aspects of Lyme disease in Pripyat Polesie] / L. S. Cvirko, N. P. Mishaeva, T. A. Sen'kovec, V. A. Devyatnikova. Vestnik Polesskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya prirodovedcheskih nauk, 2013, no. 1, pp. 54-59. (In Russ.)
16. Epidemiologicheskie osobennosti rasprostraneniya kleshchevogo virusnogo encefalita v Arhangel'skoj oblasti [Epidemiological features of the spread of tick-borne viral encephalitis in the Arkhangelsk region] / O. V. Sokolova, V. P. CHashchin, O. N. Popova i dr. Ekologiya cheloveka, 2017, no. 24 (4), pp. 12-19. (In Russ.)
17. Alkishe A. A., Peterson A. T., Samy A. M. Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus. PLoS ONE, 2017, 12(12).
18. Boeckmann M., Joyner T. A. Old health risks in new places? An ecological niche model for I. ricinus tick distribution in Europe under a changing climate. Health & Place, 2014, no. 30, pp. 70-77.
19. Changes in the geographical distribution and abundance of the tick Ixodes ricinus during the past 30 years in Sweden / Jaenson T. G. T., Jaenson D. G. E., Eisen L., Petersson E., Lingren E. Parasites & Vectors, 2012, no. 5 (1).
20. Changing Climatic Boundary Conditions for Ticks in Central Europe / Paeth H., Stender F., Aich V., Mächel H. Advanced science Letters, 2012, no. 5 (1), pp. 149-154.
21. Effects of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases in Europe / Gray J. S., Dautel H., Estrada-Peña A., Kahl O., Lindgren E. Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases, 2009.
22. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modeling / D. Porretta, V. Mastrantonio, S. Amendolia et al. Parasites & Vectors, 2013, 6 (1).
23. Gaeva D. V., Barinova G. M., & Krasnov E. V. Climate Change and Health. Good Health and Well-Being, 2020, рр. 78-91.
24. Gilbert L. Altitudinal patterns of tick and host abundance: a potential role for climate change in regulating tickborne diseases. Oecologia, 2010, no. 162 (1), рр. 217-25.
25. Habitat properties are key drivers of Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) prevalence in Ixodes ricinus populations of deciduous forest fragments / Ehrmann S., Ruyts S. C., Scherer-Lorenzen M. et al. Parasites & Vectors, 2018, no. 11 (1).
26. Multi-source analysis reveals latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in range of Ixodes ricinus at its northern distribution limit / S. Jore, H. Viljugrein, M. Hofshagen et al. Parasites & Vectors, 2011, no. 4 (1).
27. Randolph S. E. Evidence that climate change has caused ‘emergence’of tick-borne diseases in Europe? International Journal of Medical Microbiology Supplements, 2004, no. 293, рр. 5-15.
Опубликован
2023-03-25
Как цитировать
Баринова, Г. М., Гаева, Д. В., Краснов, Е. В., Романчук, А. Ю., & Ушакова, Л. О. (2023). Роль климатических факторов в распространении природно-очаговых клещевых инфекций в условиях изменения климата на северо-западе России. Вестник ВГУ. Серия: География. Геоэкология, (1), 23-34. https://doi.org/10.17308/geo/1609-0683/2023/1/23-34
Выпуск
Раздел
География
