Climatic fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in northern Kazakhstan
Keywords:
climate change, precipitation, temperature, Northern Kazakhstan, probabilistic and statistical method, sixth-degree polynomial, harmonic analysis
Abstract
The features of climatic changes in temperature and precipitation in Northern Kazakhstan are considered. It was shown that climatic changes occur with some time delay. The basis for the construction of scenarios is the assumption that the harmonics contained in the time series of temperature and precipitation and forming these series are the result of the action of a certain factor or the sum of factors. There is reason to expect that the effect of these factors will continue in the future. Under the assumption of conservation of the main harmonics, scenarios of expected climatic changes in temperature and precipitation in the region for the period up to 2040-2050 are constructed. Knowing the features of the formation of time series of precipitation, we found and used the relationships between climatic changes in precipitation and climatic fluctuations in the parameters of the general circulation of the atmosphere (Rossby waves) revealed in the process of harmonic analysis. We have obtained that over the next 40 to 50 years the temperature in Northern Kazakhstan will decrease to the amplitude of the age-old harmonic and will approach about 2° C at the end of the period. The temperature fluctuations due to the second and third harmonics will not exceed 0.8° C. For the period up to 2050 in Northern Kazakhstan it is most likely that the amount of precipitation with minor fluctuations has now approached its maximum, and in the thirties the XXI will reach its minimum. The amplitude of oscillations is most likely ±20 mm from the norm.
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References
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2.Girs A. A. Mnogoletnie kolebaniya atmosfernoy tsirkulyatsii i dolgosrochnye gidrometeorologicheskie prognozy / A. A. Girs. – Leningrad : Gidrometeoizdat, 1971. –488 s.
3.Gruza G. V. Veroyatnostnye meteorologicheskieprognozy / G. V. Gruza, E. Ya. Ran'kova. – Leningrad :Gidrometeoizdat, 1983. – 270 s.
4.Gruza G. V. Monitoring i veroyatnostnyy prognozkorotkoperiodnykh kolebaniy klimata / G. V. Gruza,E. Ya. Ran'kova. – Leningrad : Gidrometeoizdat, 1989. –S. 148-170.
5.Zhil'tsova E. L. O tochnosti vosproizvedeniya temperatury i osadkov na territorii Rossii global'nym klimaticheskim arkhivom / E. L. Zhil'tsova, O. A. Anisimov //Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. – 2009. – No 10. – S. 79-89.
6.Kokorin A. N. Sayt programmy «Klimat i energetika» – 2019. – URL: https://wwf.ru/resources/publications/booklets
7.O neopredelennosti nekotorykh stsenarnykh klimaticheskikh prognozov temperatury vozdukha i osadkov poterritorii i Rossii / G. V. Gruza [i dr.] // Meteorologiya igidrologiya. – 2006. – No 10. – S. 5-23.
8.Pilifosova O. V. Veroyatnostnyy sverkhdolgosrochnyy prognoz poley izmeneniy summ osadkov v regione«Kazakhstan-Srednyaya Aziya» / O. V. Pilifosova // TrudyKazakhskogo regional'nogo nauchno-issledovatel'skogo gidrometeorologicheskogo instituta. – 1991. – Vyp. 111. –S. 66-75.
9.Pilifosova O. V. O tendentsiyakh izmeneniya uvlazhneniya territorii Kazakhstana / O. V. Pilifosova // TrudyKazakhskogo regional'nogo nauchno-issledovatel'skogogidro meteorologicheskogo instituta. – 1990. – Vyp. 105. –S. 77-88.
10.Spravochnik po klimatu Kazakhstana : Mnogoletnie dannye. Atmosfernye osadki. – Almaty : Kazgidromet,2005. – Vyp. 1-14. – 243 s.
11.Skhema veroyatnostnogo adaptivnogo meteorologicheskogo prognoza (gruppovye analogi) s optimizatsiey sostava prediktorov / G. V. Gruza [i dr.] // Trudy Gidromettsentra SSSR. – 1989. – Vyp. 306. – S. 3-55.
12.Cherednichenko A. V. Vremennye ryady temperatury i osadkov. Statisticheskiy analiz / A. V. Cherednichenko, A. V. Cherednichenko, V. S. Cherednichenko. –Almaty : [b.i.], 2013. – 366 s.
13.Cherednichenko A. V. Dinamika klimata Kazakhstana. Nachalo epokhi pokholodaniya / A. V. Cherednichenko. – Almaty : [b.i.], 2015. – 208 s.
14.Cherednichenko A. V. O tsiklichnosti v ryadakhtemperatur. Nachalo tsikla pokholodaniya / A. V. Cherednichenko, A. V. Cherednichenko, V. S. Cherednichenko //Gidrometeorologiya i ekologiya. – 2014. – No 2. – S. 7-16.
15.Cherednichenko A. V. Sovremennye klimaticheskie tsikly vo vremennykh ryadakh temperatury i osadkov nad Kazakhstanom / A. V. Cherednichenko, A. V. Cherednichenko, V. S. Cherednichenko // Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ser. Geografiya. Geoekologiya. – 2017. – No 4. – S. 15-34.
16.Climate change in the City of Almaty during thepast 120 years / A. V. Cherednichenko [et al.] // QuaternaryInternational journal. – 2015. – URL: https://www.elsevier.com/locate/quaint
17.Climate Science Special Report: Fourth NationalClimate Assessment / D. J. Wuebbles [et al.] // USGCRP,Global Change Research Program. – Washington, DC, USA.– 2017. – P. 470.
18.Climatic Research Unit – 2019. – URL: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
19.Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data / B. D. Santer [et al.] // Journal ofClimate. – 2017. – Vol. 30. – P. 373-392.
20.Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation / S. Rahmstorf [et al.] //Nature Climate Change. – 2015. – Vol. 5. – P. 475-480.
21.Knutson T. R. Prospects for a prolonged slowdownin global warming in the early 21st century / T. R. Knutson,R. Zhang, L. W. Horowitz // Nature Communications. –2016. – Vol. 7. – P. 136-176.
22.Kopp G. A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance / G. Kopp,J. L. Lean // Geophysical Research Letters. – 2011. –Vol. 38. – L01706.
23.Langenbrunner B. Analyzing ENSO telecomnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity insimulating precipitation / B. Langenbrunner, J. D. Neelin //Journal of Climate. – 2013. – Vol. 26. – P. 4431-4446.
24.Lewandowsky S. The «pause» in global warming:Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science /S. Lewandowsky, J. S. Risbey, N. Oreskes // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. – 2016. – Vol. 97. –P. 723-733.
25.Palmen E. Atmospheric circulation systems. Theirstructure and physical interpretation / E. Palmen,C. W. Newton. – New York; London : Academic press,1969. – 615 p.
26. Schurer A. P. Small influence of solar variabilityon climate over the past millennium / A. P. Schurer,S. F. B. Tett, G. C. Hegerl // Nature Geoscience. – 2014. –Vol. 7. – P. 104-108.
27.Sneyers R. On the statistical analysis of series ofobservations / R. Sneyers // Technical note. – 1990. – No 143.– P. 192.
28.Stevenson S. L. Significant changes to ENSOstrength and impacts in the twentyfirst century: Results fromCMIP52012 / S. L. Stevenson // Geophysical ResearchLetters. – 2012. – Vol. 39. – L17703.
29.Testing for the possible influence of unknown climate forcings upon global temperature increases from 1950to 2000 / B. T. Anderson [et al.] // Journal of Climate. –2012. – Vol. 25. – P. 7163-7172.
30.The Northern Hemisphere extra tropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How well do we know itand how do we evaluate models accordingly? / C. Deser[etal.] // Journal of Climate. – 2017. – Vol. 30. – P. 5059-5082.
31.Trenberth K. E. Has there been a hiatus? /K. E. Trenberth // Science. – 2015. – Vol. 349. – P. 691-692.
32.Uncertainties in precipitation and their impacts onrunoff estimates / B. M. Fekete [et al.] // Journal of Climate. – 2004. – Vol. 1. – P. 293-304.
Published
2019-04-17
How to Cite
Чередниченко, А. В., Чередниченко, А. В., & Чередниченко, В. С. (2019). Climatic fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in northern Kazakhstan. Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Geography. Geoecology, (2), 17-31. https://doi.org/10.17308/geo.2019.2/2297
Section
Geography
