Adaptive-rational forecasting in economic systems: conceptual ideas and models of realization

Abstract

Key ideas of the adaptive-rational approach to forecasting economic processes and possible variants of their formalization are discussed. The considered variants are focused on specifi city of solved problems and represent models, in which forecasting trajectories fi nd refl ections of trend of the past and subjective expectations of the future. Anticipatory calculations on such models allow to receive the most plausible image of the future.