Developing a concept for the economic and social management of a city with due account for the predicted industrial development

Keywords: urban economy, management, social sphere, industrial development, prediction modelling

Abstract

Subject. Theoretical, methodological, and practical issues related to the economic and social management of the city with due account of the predicted values of the industrial development.
Objectives. Justification of scientific and methodological provisions of a conceptual nature related to urban management and solving local social problems by forecasting the level of industrial development.
Methodology. The authors put forward a hypothesis: if the level of industrial development is forecasted accurately, it is possible to plan upcoming changes in the main economic and social indicators of the municipal economy. Theoretically, the hypothesis is based on the method of logical scaling and synthesis of scientific and practical knowledge. Statistical studies were conducted using the method of econometric and financial analysis based on socio-economic indicators of industrial cities in the Southern Federal District of Russia for the period from 2013 to 2022. Forecasting for the subsequent periods is based on an applied approach to constructing estimates of the quasi-maximal likelihood of the level of industrial development, which was carried out using the theory of stochastic differential equations based on methods of probabilistic forecasting.
Results and discussion. As a result of the study, it was substantiated that municipal management contributes to the production of material goods and to harmonisation of socio-economic relations between local authorities, businesses, public organisations, and individuals, which are interrelated with the level of industrial development of a city. The developed applied approach to constructing estimates of the quasi-maximal likelihood of values of socio-economic parameters makes it possible to forecast the level of industrial development of cities in the Russian Federation. Point and interval forecasts lay the foundation for planning economic and other indicators. The concept of economic and social management of administrative-territorial units was proposed. The mandatory socio-economic blocks of the concept were supplemented with the functionality of prediction modelling, which requires further discussion, critical understanding, and subsequent improvement. Future changes in local industrial policy need to be analysed and evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in the context of structural modernisation of the economic and organisational mechanism for urban and social management of the city.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Author Biography

Yulian N. Polshkov, Donetsk State University

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof.

References

Баранов, А. В., Тагаев, А. В., & Брюханова, Н. В. (2022). Оптимизация структуры и штатной численности органов местного само-управления как инструмент социально-экономического развития муници-пального образования. Государственное и Муниципальное Управление. Учёные Записки, 3, 9–16. [Baranov, A. V., Tagaev, A. V., & Bryukhanova, N. V. (2022). Optimization of structure and staffing of local self-government bodies as a tool for socio-economic development of municipal education. State and Municipal Administration. Scientists Notes, 3, 9-16. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2022-1-3-9-16

Денисенко, И. Ф., & Тованчова, Е. Н. (2023). Роль органов местного самоуправления в системе публичной власти РФ: лучшие практики Ростовской области. Государственное и Муниципальное Управление. Учёные Записки, 1, 11–17. [Denisenko, I. F., & Tovanchova, E. N. (2023). The role of local government in the system of public authority of the Russian Federation: best practices of the Rostov region. State and Municipal Administration. Scientists Notes, 1, 11-17. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2023-1-1-11-17

Ендовицкий, Д. А., Трещевский, Ю. И., Канапухин, П. А., & Кособуцкая, А. Ю. (2023). Эмпирический анализ и прогнозирование динамики инновационного развития регионов России. Вестник Воронежского Государственного Университета. Серия: Экономика и Управление, 1, 51–64. [Yendovitsky, D. A., Treschevsky, Y. I., Kanapukhin, P. A., & Kosobutskaya, A. Y. (2023). Empirical analysis and forecasting of dynamics of innovative development of Russian regions. Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Economics and Management, 1, 51-64. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.17308/econ.2023.1/10932

Кошелева, Е. Г. (2019). Экономические предпосылки взаимодействия субъектов интеллектуального предпринимательства и государства в рамках реализации проектов государственно-частного партнёрства. Вестник Донецкого Национального Университета. Серия В. Экономика и Право, 3, 84–92. [Kosheleva, E. G. (2019). Economic prerequisites of interaction of subjects of intellectual entrepreneurship and the state in the framework of realization of projects of public-private partnership. Bulletin of Donetsk National University. Series B. Economics and Law, 3, 84-92. (In Russian).]

Кюрджиев, С. П., & Бохан, П. А. (2022). Разработка предложений по совершенствованию методологии мониторинга социально-экономического развития Ростовской области. Государственное и Муниципальное Управление. Учёные Записки, 4, 12–18. [Kurdjiev, S. P., & Bokhan, P. A. (2022). Development of proposals to improve the methodology of monitoring socio-economic development of the Rostov region. State and Municipal Administration. Scientists Notes, 4, 12-18. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2022-1-4-12-18

Лазарева, И. И., & Геворгян, А. А. (2022). Инновационные природосберегающие технологии «smart transport» в системе устойчивого управления мегаполисом. Государственное и Муниципальное Управление. Учёные Записки, 1, 21–28. [Lazareva, I. I., & Gevorgyan, A. A. (2022). Innovative nature-saving technologies "smart transportation" in the system of sustainable management of megapolis. State and Municipal Management. Academic Notes, 1, 21-28. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2022-1-2-21-28

Овакимян, М. А., & Савченко, А. Б. (2022). «Экосистема» взаимодействия публичной власти: этикет принятия управленческих решений. Государственное и Муниципальное Управление. Учёные Записки, 3, 49–54. [Ovakimyan, M. A., & Savchenko, A. B. (2022). "Ecosystem" of public power interaction: etiquette of managerial decision-making. State and Municipal Administration. Scientists Notes, 3, 49-54. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2022-1-3-49-54

Орешников, В. В., & Аитова, Ю. С. (2019). Применение методов экономико-математического моделирования при разработке стратегии развития муниципального образования. Вопросы Территориального Развития, 3(48), 1–13. [Oreshnikov, V. V., & Aitova, Y. S. (2019). Application of economic and mathematical modeling methods in the development of the municipal development strategy. Issues of Territorial Development, 3(48), 1-13. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.15838/tdi.2019.3.48.3

Палаш, С. В. (2020). Оценка системной эффективности структурной промышленной политики в Российской Федерации. Экономика и Предпринимательство, 12, 240–250. [Palash, S. V. (2020). Estimation of systemic efficiency of structural industrial policy in the Russian Federation. Economics and Entrepreneurship, 12, 240-250. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.34925/EIP.2021.125.12.047

Половян, А. В., & Терентьева, М. Ю. (2022). Проблематика инвестиционно-инновационного развития экономики высоко-технологичной отрасли промышленности: теоретический базис. Вестник Донецкого Национального Университета. Серия В. Экономика и Право, 2, 240–249. [Polovyan, A. V., & Terentyeva, M. Y. (2022). Problematika investitsionno-innovatsionnogo razvitiya ekonomiki vysokho-technologicheskoy sindustrii: theoretical basis. Bulletin of Donetsk National University. Series B. Economics and Law, 2, 240-249. (In Russian).]

Половян, А. В., & Ялунер, А. Ф. (2023). Оценка влияния инструментов smart-промышленности на устойчивое развитие предприятия. Управленческий Учёт, 7, 160–168. [Polovyan, A. V., & Yaluner, A. F. (2023). Assessing the impact of smart-industry tools on sustainable enterprise development. Management Accounting, 7, 160-168. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.25806/uu72023160-168

Стрижакова, Е. Н., & Стрижаков, Д. В. (2020). Реализация промышленной политики на муниципальном уровне: проблемы и возможности. Управление Городом: Теория и Практика, 4(38), 37–42. [Strizhakova, E. N., & Strizhakov, D. V. (2020). Realization of industrial policy at the municipal level: problems and opportunities. City Management: Theory and Practice, 4(38), 37-42. (In Russian).]

Трещевский, Ю. И., Кособуцкая, А. Ю., Гарин, Л. К., & Роднин, М. Н. (2022). Влияние санкций на экономику регионов: общее и особенное. Регион: Системы, Экономика, Управление, 3(58), 36–46. [Treschevsky, Y. I., Kosobutskaya, A. Y., Garin, L. K., & Rodnin, M. N. (2022). The impact of sanctions on regional economies: general and special. Region: Systems, Economics, Management, 3(58), 36-46. (In Russian).] https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22394/1997-4469-2022-58-3-36-46

Aiginger, K., & Rodrik, D. (2020). Rebirth of Industrial Policy and an Agenda for the Twenty-First Century. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 20(2), 189–207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-019-00322-3

Bondarev, B. V. (1997). Evaluation of calculated influences in parabolic systems, L 1-approach. Random Operators and Stochastic Equations, 5(4), 357–369. https://doi.org/10.1515/rose.1997.5.4.357

Cantini, A., Leoni, L., De Carlo, F., Salvio, M., Martini, C., & Martini, F. (2021). Technological energy efficiency improvements in cement industries. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13073810

Enders, J., & Remig, M. (2016). Theories of Sustainable Development. Routledge.

Garbarino, E., Orveillon, G., & Saveyn, H. G. M. (2020). Management of waste from extractive industries: The new European reference document on the Best Available Techniques. Resources Policy, 69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101782

Liu, E. (2019). Industrial policies in production networks. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(4), 1883–1948. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz024

Ríos, A. M., Benito, B., & Bastida, F. (2017). Factors Explaining Public Participation in the Central Government Budget Process. Australian Journal of Public Administration, 76(1), 48–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8500.12197

Torugsa, N. (Ann), & Arundel, A. (2017). Rethinking the effect of risk aversion on the benefits of service innovations in public administration agencies. Research Policy, 46(5), 900–910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2017.03.009

Published
2023-12-29
How to Cite
Polshkov, Y. N. (2023). Developing a concept for the economic and social management of a city with due account for the predicted industrial development. Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Economics and Management, (4), 76-89. https://doi.org/10.17308/econ.2023.4/11660
Section
Regional Economy