Methodological chaos of scenario planning
Abstract
Subject. The variability of definitions of the term “scenario planning”, as well as its implementation methods, resulted in the so-called methodological chaos of scenario planning, which makes the concept difficult to understand and use in strategic management.
Purpose. To systematise the existing knowledge and reduce the degree of methodological chaos in scenario planning in order to facilitate its application in strategic management.
Methods. When studying the existing data regarding scenario planning, we used the following methods of scientific knowledge to achieve our goals: analysis, synthesis, and generalisation.
Results. Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool, which is advisable to use for the analysis of possible futures under conditions of uncertainty. We systematised the concepts of “scenario planning” and “scenario” as a result of such planning and determined the optimal number of scenarios required for strategic decision making taking into account the resource intensity of the creation of scenarios and the necessity to avoid the trap of studying various aspects of the same scenario.
Conclusions. Under growing uncertainty of the environment, scenario planning aimed at determining alternative scenarios of the future seems to be a preferable research method, since it provides informational support for strategic decision making. Therefore, it is necessary to systematise the existing theoretical and practical knowledge in the field.
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References
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