Empirical analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of the innovative development of Russian regions

Keywords: innovation, region, empirical analysis, innovation function, forecasting

Abstract

Subject. Innovative development of Russian regions. Dynamics of the basic parameters of innovative activity which characterise three blocks of innovation functions: process block, result block, and resource block.
Objectives. To research basic parameters of innovative activity, to establish whether there is balance/disbalance between the process, result, and resource blocks of the innovative development of regions.
Experimental. Theoretically, the study is based on the dialectical method, which was used to formulate the hypothesis of the study: the low level of innovative development of regions is due to the spatial and functional disbalance of their innovation subsystems, which include process, resource, and result blocks. To identify the state and dynamics of the innovative development of Russian regions, an empirical analysis of the basic parameters of this process was carried out. These parameters reflect various aspects of the innovative development of regions: the state of innovation processes, results, and used resources. Model regions (representative regions) were selected as a result of cluster analysis. The dynamics of the basic parameters for the period of 2010-2021 was estimated by the correlation-regression method. The forecast for the period of 2022-2024 was created by extrapolating the data for each function describing the actual dynamics with a sufficient degree of reliability.
Results and discussion. We propose to assess innovation processes by five innovation functions combined into three blocks: process block (functional diversification, technological diversification, and technological concentration); result block (production concentration); and resource block (resource concentration). The results of the analysis showed that the development of functional diversification is unstable in most model regions, which makes it impossible to reliably predict its further dynamics. There is a steady growth, though of varied degree, in technological diversification and technological concentration in all model regions. Production concentration (result block) and resource concentration (resource block) are characterised by unstable trends and an overall tendency towards deterioration over the period of 2010-2021.

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Author Biographies

Dmitriy A. Endovitsky, Voronezh State University

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Full Prof., Rector

Yuri I. Treshchevsky, Voronezh State University

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Full Prof., Head of the Department of Economics and Organization Management

Pavel A. Kanapukhin, Voronezh State University

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Head of Economics, Marketing and Commerce Department

Anna Yu. Kosobutskaya, Voronezh State University

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., Department of Organization Economics and Management

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Published
2023-03-31
How to Cite
Endovitsky, D. A., Treshchevsky, Y. I., Kanapukhin, P. A., & Kosobutskaya, A. Y. (2023). Empirical analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of the innovative development of Russian regions. Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Economics and Management, (1), 51-64. https://doi.org/10.17308/econ.2023.1/10932
Section
Regional Economy